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Posted April 5, 2017, 8:02 pm
BY
Garry Smits
|
garry.smits@jacksonville.com

Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list

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    Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list
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    Rahm

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    Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list
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    Mickelson

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    Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list
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    Rose

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    Stenson

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    Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list
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    Fowler

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    Who will win Masters? Consider the Who’s Who list
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    Day

Maybe it’s time an obvious Masters front-runner actually won the tournament.

Maybe it will be the world’s No. 1-ranked player, Dustin Johnson – which hasn’t happened since Tiger Woods in 2005. Johnson, however, hurt his back during a fall at his rental home Wednesday but will attempt to play Thursday.

Maybe it will be an aging but still dangerous past champion. Think 46-year-old Jack Nicklaus in 1986 or 39-year-old Nick Faldo in 1996, then consider that three-time Masters champion Phil Mickelson is the same age as Nicklaus was when the Golden Bear won his sixth green jacket.

Only two players have won the Masters in their first start (except for the first winner, Horton Smith), Gene Sarazen in 1935 and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. But Jon Rahm isn’t your typical Masters rookie and has won once and finished among the top-10 seven times in 21 PGA Tour starts. He enters the tournament in as good a form as anyone other than Johnson, with a victory at Torrey Pines and a runner-up to Johnson at the Dell Match Play among four top-five finishes in his last five starts.

Also factor in Rahm’s heritage: he’s the latest in a long line of Spanish stars that include past Masters champions Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal.

Does Rory McIlroy complete the career Grand Slam? Does 2015 champion Jordan Spieth have a short memory after his disaster at No. 12 last year? Can Jason Day, a heavy burden lifted with good medical news for his mother, become the second Australian in five years to win the Masters?

The list of serious contenders goes even deeper as the tournament begins Thursday with the ceremonial tee shots by legends Nicklaus and Gary Player.

Justin Rose has top-10s in his last two Augusta starts and an Olympic gold medal. Henrik Stenson was the runaway winner at the Open championship last year. Rickie Fowler’s flash gained substance with his Players Championship victory in 2015 and he showed more mental toughness by winning the Honda Classic at the always-difficult PGA National last month.

What about recent champions Bubba Watson and Adam Scott? Or defending champion Danny Willett, who is struggling to find the form he had last year?

There was a time when handicapping the Masters didn’t require much over-thinking.

Between Tiger Woods’ first Masters title in 1997 and Phil Mickelson’s third in 2010, the winner usually came from a small pool of the top pre-tournament candidates. In that 14-year period, Woods and Mickelson combined to win seven times at Augusta. Three of the other seven tournaments were won by players who would eventually join Mickelson in the World Golf Hall of Fame – Olazabal, Vijay Singh and Mark O’Meara.

Only O’Meara could have been considered a surprise.

The runners-up during that time also were a Who’s Who list of golf royalty. Of the 14 players who were either tied for second or finished solo runner-up, seven are major champions, with Hall of Fame member Ernie Els, David Duval and Retief Goosen coming up just short twice each, and Hall of Famers Tom Kite, Fred Couples, Davis Love III once each.

But consider the winners since Mickelson in 2010:

  • Charl Schwartzel, in only his second Masters start, lapped contenders such as Woods, Adam Scott and Day with four closing birdies in his shocking 2011 victory.
  • Watson, in only his fourth start at Augusta, hit one of the most celebrated shots in Masters history with his pull-hook wedge at No. 10 to win in 2012 in sudden death over Louis Oosthuizen.
  • Scott ended decades of Down Under doom in 2013 when he birdied the final hole in regulation and the second hole in sudden death to turn back 2009 Masters champ Angel Cabrera.
  • Spieth had been targeted for greatness since junior golf. But his domination in 2015 to tie Woods’ scoring record of 270 was hardly expected in his second Masters start.
  • And Willett’s victory last year, the first by an Englishman since Faldo 20 years before, came after Spieth imploded by playing Nos. 10, 11 and 12 at 6-over, with a quadruple-bogey 7 at the par-3 12th. Like Schwartzel and Spieth, Willett was playing in only his second Masters.

 

Regardless of who wins, it will be one of golf’s most difficult 72-hole mental tests. The angled tee shots, the undulating, slippery greens, the tricky wind and the haunting history of Augusta National will be on every player’s mind – sometimes all at once, and often at the top of their backswing.

But the players revere the course, the tournament and the test.

“I always love coming here … it’s probably my favorite place on earth,” said Mickelson. “I’ve had some good and some bad and I look to always try to find it as we go down Magnolia Lane.”

“It’s my favorite tournament,” Spieth said. “Just a tremendous opportunity everybody in the field has this week. It’s pure golf.”

McIlroy, who has three top-10 finishes in the Masters in a row, said experience doesn’t matter in one regard at Augusta National.

“You come up here as much as you want but once you step on that first tee and it’s the first hole of the Masters, it’s a little different,” he said. “It seems like the bunker on the right gets bigger and it seems like the trees on the left come in a little bit more and it seems like the fairway is non-existent. I thoroughly enjoy this week. No matter if you win or lose, it’s one of the highlights of the year.”

But winning a green jacket highlights careers, not years. And that’s as pure as golf gets.

Rookie Rahm has made a splash this season
Mickelson eager to atone for last year’s missed cut
Rose is as good as gold coming back to Augusta National
Day’s OK with following fellow Aussie as champion
Early win shows Fowler knows how to close deal
Stenson enters Masters with confidence of a major champion

Picks to win

20 Jordan Spieth

19 Rory McIlroy

18 Dustin Johnson

6 Jason Day

5 Jon Rahm

2 Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker, Justin Thomas

1 Paul Casey, Fred Couples, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Bill Haas, Martin Kaymer, Soren Kjeldsen, Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama

 

Greatest Masters

Journalists were asked to select the greatest Masters win. Here is what they picked:

44 1986, Jack Nicklaus

17 1997, Tiger Woods

4 1975, Jack Nicklaus

3 2004, Phil Mickelson

2 1935, Gene Sarazen

2 1942, Byron Nelson

2 2005, Tiger Woods

 

BEST MASTERS TRADITION

16 - Honorary starters

13 - Green jacket

8 - Par-3 Contest

7 - Champions Dinner

6 - Egg salad sandwich

4 - Amateurs/Crows Nest

3 - Affordable concessions/beer

2 - Driving Magnolia Lane

2 - Skipping balls on 16

2 - “Reserved” folding chairs

2 - Not pimento cheese

1 - Amen Corner

1 - Annual venue

1 - Butler Cabin ceremony

1 - Carl Jackson caddying for Crenshaw

1 - Clubhouse veranda

1 - Courteousness

1 - Crystal awards

1 - Lifetime exemption

1 - Monday lottery

1 - No “Mashed potato!”

1 - Pimento cheese sandwich

1 - No corporate ads

1 - Second nine Sunday

1 - No running

1 - “The bar is now open.”

 

DOMESTIC

Journalist Organization Favorite Surprise

Nancy Armour USA Today Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Jeff Babineau Golfweek Jordan Spieth Jhonattan Vegas

Michael Bamberger Sports Illustrated Fred Couples Louis Oosthuizen

Al Blondin The Sun News Dustin Johnson Tyrrell Hatton

John Boyette Augusta Chronicle Dustin Johnson Kevin Kisner

Christine Brennan USA Today Rory McIlroy Phil Mickelson

Mark Cannizzaro N.Y. Post Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Jay Coffin GolfChannel.com Rory McIlroy Paul Casey

Karen Crouse The New York Times Phil Mickelson Thomas Pieters

Martin Davis The American Golfer Jordan Spieth Sergio Garcia

John Dell Winston-Salem Journal Bill Haas Patrick Reed

Steve DiMeglio USA Today Brandt Snedeker

Nathan Dominitz Savannah Morning News Dustin Johnson Daniel Berger

Larry Dorman Masters Journal Rory McIlroy Billy Hurley

Gerry Dulac Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Jordan Spieth Tommy Fleetwood

Kevin Faigle WRDW TV Rory McIlroy Matthew Fitzpatrick

Doug Ferguson Associated Press Brandt Snedeker Mackenzie Hughes

Bill Fields Masters.com Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm

John Garrity Sports Illustrated Jon Rahm Steve Stricker

Chris Gay Augusta Chronicle Paul Casey Charley Hoffman

Ron Green Jr. Global Golf Post Jon Rahm Adam Hadwin

Teddy Greenstein Chicago Tribune Jason Day Matthew Fitzpatrick

Grant Hall NW Arkansas Democrat-Gazette Jordan Spieth Jon Rahm

Bob Harig ESPN.com Phil Mickelson Marc Leishman

Ryan Herrington Golf Digest Dustin Johnson Thomas Pieters

Mark Herrmann Newsday Dustin Johnson Tyrrell Hatton

Rex Hoggard GolfChannel.com Rory McIlroy Alex Noren

John Huggan New Zealand Golf Magazine Jordan Spieth Tyrrell Hatton

Steve Hummer AJC Jordan Spieth Jon Rahm

Dan Jenkins Golf Digest Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm

Mike Johnson Golf World Jordan Spieth Tyrrell Hatton

Josh Kendall The State Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Dave Kindred Golf Digest Jordan Spieth Rickie Fowler

Vartan Kupelian Masters.com Sergio Garcia Tommy Fleetwood

David Lee Augusta Chronicle Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Lance Lahnert Amarillo Globe-News Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm

Ryan Lavner GolfChannel.com Jordan Spieth Marc Leishman

Randall Mell GolfChannel.com Dustin Johnson Matthew Fitzpatrick

Alex Miceli Morning Read Jordan Spieth Tyrrell Hatton

Scott Michaux Augusta Chronicle Jon Rahm Alex Noren

Paul Newberry Associated Press Jordan Spieth Jon Rahm

Beth Ann Nichols Golfweek Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Ian O’Connor ESPN.com Dustin Johnson Bill Haas

Steve Politi NJ.com Soren Kjeldsen Tommy Fleetwood

Doug Roberson AJC Jordan Spieth Justin Thomas

Helen Ross GWAA Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

Jeff Schultz AJC Jason Day Russell Henley

Geoff Shackelford Golfweek Marc Leishman Kevin Kisner

Len Shapiro Miami Herald Jason Day Billy Hurley

Dave Shedloski Golf World Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm

Daniel Shirley Macon Telegraph Jordan Spieth Brandt Snedeker

Loran Smith Athens Banner Herald Dustin Johnson Russell Henley

Garry Smits Florida Times-Union Rory McIlroy Scott Piercy

Jason Sobel ESPN.com Rickie Fowler Kevin Kisner

Thomas Stinson AJC Dustin Johnson Russell Henley

Doug Stutsman Augusta Chronicle Jon Rahm Ryan Moore

Barry Svrluga Washington Post Rory McIlroy Thomas Pieters

Gary Van Sickle Morning Read Jordan Spieth Alex Noren

Brian Wacker Golf Digest Jordan Spieth Marc Leishman

David Westin Augusta Chronicle Justin Thomas Russell Henley

Dan Wetzel Yahoo Sports Jordan Spieth Curtis Luck

George Willis N.Y. Post Jordan Spieth Ernie Els

Mike Wynn Augusta Chronicle Jason Day Russell Henley

Guy Yocum Golf Digest Dustin Johnson Angel Cabrera

INTERNATIONAL

Journalist Organization Favorite Surprise

Phil Casey Press Association Rory McIlroy Tyrrell Hatton

Philippe Chassert Liberation Jordan Spieth Pat Perez

Jamie Corrigan Daily Telegraph Rory McIlroy Lee Westwood

Martin Dempster The Scotsman Jordan Spieth Tyrrell Hatton

Ben Everill PGATour.com Jason Day Rod Pampling

John Hopkins Masters Journal Justin Thomas Jon Rahm

Brendan James Golf Australia Hideki Matsuyama Marc Leishman

Steve Keating Reuters Rory McIlroy Adam Hadwin

Brian Keogh The Irish Sun Rory McIlroy Tyrrell Hatton

Derek Lawrenson Daily Mail Jason Day Tyrrell Hatton

Robert Lusetich The Australian Dustin Johnson Tyrrell Hatton

Bernie McGuire AGW Rory McIlroy Tyrrell Hatton

Neil McLeman Daily Mirror Jordan Spieth Tyrrell Hatton

Ewan Murray The Guardian Rory McIlroy Zach Johnson

Philip Reid Irish Times Rory McIlroy Adam Hadwin

Wolfgang Scheffler Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm

Martin Stromberg Svensk Golf Martin Kaymer Alex Noren

Isabel Trillo Amores ARNGolf,com Jon Rahm Chris Wood

Krishnaswamy Vishwanathan Press Trust of India Dustin Johnson Jon Rahm

 

Why will they win?

On Jordan Spieth

“The best player for 143 of the last 144 holes here.” Neil McLeman, Daily Mirror

“Revenge is best served with birdies.” Ryan Lavner, GolfChannel.com

“Ace on 12 Sunday.” Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports

On Rory McIlroy

“It will rain and Rory will reign.” Jamie Corrigan, Daily Telegraph

“Completing career slam is long overdue.” Wolfgang Scheffler, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

“He’s served his time. Man on a mission.” Brian Keogh, The Irish Sun

On Jason Day

“For family; for mum.” Ben Everill, PGATour.com

“Beware the relieved golfer.” Derek Lawrenson, Daily Mail

“Sucker for a good story.” Jeff Schultz, AJC

On Dustin Johnson

“No. 1: he’s No. 1. No. 2: he’s hottest player in the field.” Mark Cannizzaro, N.Y. Post

“Palmetto State is on a roll!” John Boyette, Augusta Chronicle

On Brandt Snedeker

“Just a normal guy from Nashville, Tennessee.” Doug Ferguson, Associated Press

On Jon Rahm

“The next great Spaniard wins on Seve’s 60th birthday.” Ron Green Jr., Global Golf Post

On Soren Kjeldsen

“Augusta Chronicle headline: Great Dane!” Steve Politi, NJ.com

On Hideki Matsuyama

“Proven performer at Augusta has the form and game to win.” Brendan James, Golf Australia

Five Faves

Dustin Johnson - World No. 1 seems to have the game figured out

Jordan Spieth - Finishing 2, 1, 2 buries any lingering demons

Rory McIlroy - Course perfect for him if he gets out of his own way

Jason Day - Emotion from his mother’s recovery could carry him

Justin Thomas - Three-time PGA Tour winner already this season

 

First-timers ready to win

Jon Rahm - Just 22 and already on many lists of Masters favorites

Adam Hadwin - Shot 59, won Tampa, got married and postponed honeymoon

Tyrrell Hatton - Soared to second highest rank of 11 Englishmen in field

Alex Noren - Rare rookie to show up at Masters already ranked in top 10

Thomas Pieters - Ryder Cup showed he won’t wilt under Masters pressure

 

Potential sequels

Phil Mickelson - Masters has brought out magic in 46-year-old champs

Adam Scott - Family man focused all his attention on peaking here

Charl Schwartzel - Restored confidence engages 2011 champ entering peak

Bernhard Langer - He was sitting two back through 54 at age 58

Angel Cabrera - 2009 champion showed a spark in Houston prelim

 

Tailor-made for green jackets

Hideki Matsuyama - Consecutive top-6’s trending toward first Asian winner

Brandt Snedeker - Comfortable at Augusta and potential challenging conditions

Justin Rose - Olympic gold medalist is often a weekend factor

Marc Leishman - Green jacket would compliment Palmer red cardigan

Louis Oosthuizen - South African comes in under the radar
 

It’s about time

Sergio Garcia - Happiness in life could finally make him happy in majors

Henrik Stenson - Confidence from Open triumph could spark more successes

Rickie Fowler - Game is hitting stride just in time for major season

Matt Kuchar - Classic bronze medalist is past due for an upgrade

Paul Casey - Content in life and a consistent performer at Augusta
 

Worth mentioning

Brooks Koepka - Consistent, if limited, experience in majors already

Daniel Berger - Hit or miss this season but loaded with potential

Charley Hoffman - 2015 contender emerged from slump at the right time

J.B. Holmes - Tied for fourth in Masters and solo third in British last season

Patrick Reed - Trending mediocre after a strong fall/Ryder Cup

Heart picks

Ernie Els - Hoping he can turn Masters swan song into a fairy tale

Kevin Kisner - Bulldog from Aiken would be a popular winner

Steve Stricker - Returns once more fresh off successful senior launch

Jim Furyk - Ryder Cup captain might yield reins if he wins green jacket

Jose Maria Olazabal - Nice to see him back and healthy after missing 2016
 

Not gonna happen

Bubba Watson - Weight loss, playing colored balls have dulled his edge

Danny Willett - Current form not up to precious few who can repeat

Martin Kaymer - Hasn’t won since 2014 Players/U.S. Open combo

Andy Sullivan -  Over-whelmed in 80-77 effort as a 2016 rookie

Webb Simpson - Never better than 28th in five Augusta starts

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